GhostOfCaptSpaulding
06-21-2009, 06:52 PM
Chatham House (http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/), the U.K. thinktank, has published a paper (http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/publications/papers/view/-/id/755/) casting doubt on the Iranian election result.
It examines the following issues:
[offsite:31o01mk8] Irregularities in Voter Turnout
[/*:m:31o01mk8]
Where did Ahmadinejad’s New Votes Come From?
[/*:m:31o01mk8]
Do Rural Voters Support Ahmadinejad?[/*:m:31o01mk8]
Its main findings are:
In two Conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of more than 100% was recorded.[/*:m:31o01mk8]
At a provincial level, there is no correlation between the increased turnout, and the swing to Ahmadinejad. This challenges the notion that his victory was due to the massive participation of a previously silent Conservative majority.[/*:m:31o01mk8]
In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, and all former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former Reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two groups.[/*:m:31o01mk8]
In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas. That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth. The claim that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in more rural provinces flies in the face of these trends.[/*:m:31o01mk8][/offsite:31o01mk8]
Based upon the foregoing it appears that the rigging of the election was done in such a ham-handed fashion that it leads one to entertain two possibilities:
Those who conducted the fraud were incompetent and overplayed their hand, or...[/*:m:31o01mk8]
The perpetrators were confident their fabricated results would go unquestioned and in their arrogance didn't care if their scam was apparent.[/*:m:31o01mk8]
Additionally, there remains a third possibility: perhaps, remote as it may seem, the hard-liners themselves were among the duped and the election was rigged by forces outside their system.
In this way, the ruling party's eager acceptance of the results and subsequent intransigence in the face of the incredulous masses would serve to ignite the populist uprising.
Playing into the hidden agenda of those yet to be revealed.
And while the safe money is on the arrogance of the ruling elite, until further analysis of just who stands to benefit the most from a fractured Iran, one shouldn't rule out the latter...
It examines the following issues:
[offsite:31o01mk8] Irregularities in Voter Turnout
[/*:m:31o01mk8]
Where did Ahmadinejad’s New Votes Come From?
[/*:m:31o01mk8]
Do Rural Voters Support Ahmadinejad?[/*:m:31o01mk8]
Its main findings are:
In two Conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of more than 100% was recorded.[/*:m:31o01mk8]
At a provincial level, there is no correlation between the increased turnout, and the swing to Ahmadinejad. This challenges the notion that his victory was due to the massive participation of a previously silent Conservative majority.[/*:m:31o01mk8]
In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, and all former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former Reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two groups.[/*:m:31o01mk8]
In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas. That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth. The claim that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in more rural provinces flies in the face of these trends.[/*:m:31o01mk8][/offsite:31o01mk8]
Based upon the foregoing it appears that the rigging of the election was done in such a ham-handed fashion that it leads one to entertain two possibilities:
Those who conducted the fraud were incompetent and overplayed their hand, or...[/*:m:31o01mk8]
The perpetrators were confident their fabricated results would go unquestioned and in their arrogance didn't care if their scam was apparent.[/*:m:31o01mk8]
Additionally, there remains a third possibility: perhaps, remote as it may seem, the hard-liners themselves were among the duped and the election was rigged by forces outside their system.
In this way, the ruling party's eager acceptance of the results and subsequent intransigence in the face of the incredulous masses would serve to ignite the populist uprising.
Playing into the hidden agenda of those yet to be revealed.
And while the safe money is on the arrogance of the ruling elite, until further analysis of just who stands to benefit the most from a fractured Iran, one shouldn't rule out the latter...